2016索罗斯达沃斯接受彭博采访全文(2)
George Soros: Unfortunately, I didn't make enough because I give away a billion dollars a year. And that's -- it's a smaller trade.
LACQUA: We have another question.
What do you think of social impact bonds as a way to fund critical human needs?
George Soros: I think it's a -- those are interesting proposals. I haven't been deeply involved in them. But I think it's a -- I've heard about the proposal that was launched here in Davos and I think it's a good initiative.
LACQUA: So we've mentioned a lot of crises, but we didn't talk about the U.S. elections. How worried are you by the popularity of Donald Trump?
George Soros: Well, it's un -- Donald Trump is doing the work of ISIS.
(LAUGHTER)
George Soros: ISIS and before that al Qaeda discovered the Achilles' heel of Western civilization, the fear of death. And when it -- it's -- it interferes with reason and people do things out of fear which is actually harmful.
And that's what -- by fear-mongering, Donald Trump and the others, Cruz and so on, are doing the work of ISIS.
And the -- I actually listened to the debates. And it's a very simple message. I found it difficult to resist it. I was -- you know, it's a -- because it's so elemental.
The only thing that stopped me is the knowledge that it must be wrong to do what your enemies want you to do. They want people to turn against Muslims, to treat them as -- with suspicion and convince the Muslim community that there is no alternative except terrorism.
And so the -- it turns the young Muslim population into a breeding ground for terrorists. And we must resist that, because we are doing the work of ISIS.
But at the same time, I don't think the threat by ISIS should be overestimated because they are very successful in exploiting this fear of death in the Western society.
But they are losing ground on the -- in their -- in Syria, in the caliphate. And they know that their days are numbered, because their -- in Iraq, the Iraqi Army is going to squeeze them out and I think in Syria, they have to govern. And they've turned the local population against them.
So ISIS is also doing this from a very weak position.
So this is the amazing thing in the world today, that it's sort of a competition of weakness.
LACQUA: But what does the fact that Donald Trump is not fading, right, that he -- he is still very popular -- tell us about the angst or fears about voters and -- and what are the polities -- policies that the voters in the U.S. should be focusing on?
George Soros: Well, here, I have to confess to a little bit of bias, so take that into account. I think it all -- it's going to lead to a landslide for Hillary Clinton in the popular vote, not in the electoral vote, because there, paid political announcements will have a big role.
And so the electoral thing will be closer. But the popular vote will be a landslide because she is campaigning for the general elections, whereas the Republicans are fighting for the primary. And the primary is a small minority of extremists.
And so they are all moved -- moving in that direction. And while I don't think that Donald Trump has any chance of being elected, he will -- may have the role of kingmaker, because he will have -- he's lasted long enough, he will get quite a bit of -- quite a few votes.
LACQUA: But you think Hillary Clinton is a done deal...
George Soros: I think I...
LACQUA: -- for -- for the Democrats?
George Soros: Yes. And I do think, actually, she's the one who's most qualified. But that's my bias.
LACQUA: I have another question. How does reflexivity fit into the current deflationary theme?
George Soros: Well, that would -- have to tell you more about the conceptual framework that I use for the analysis. And that's -- I call it the human uncertainty principle. And it's built on two pillars -- fallibility and reflexivity. And the main idea is that natural science has been more successful in bringing the force of -- forces of nature, understanding the forces of nature and bringing them under our control than we have been able to govern ourselves.
So as a result, our ability to destroy our civilization has increased and our ability to govern ourselves hasn't.
And so we are -- we have the capacity to destroy ourselves, with obviously a global (INAUDIBLE) climate changes, manmade, is a typical example or a -- of that. And we haven't got international governance. In fact, it's breaking down.
So that's the situation.
However, I think we are learning more about how markets and societies function, so there is a revolution in the social sciences.
I set up The Institute for New Economic Thinking, INET, in 2009. And I think we have already convinced the world that the prevailing economic doctrine of efficient markets and rational expectations is false.
But we haven't yet produced new insights. But it's now happening. And we are learning a lot. And I am hopeful that we'll learn enough and fast enough that we will learn to bring deflation under control.
And there, I think actually at that turn, we'll see the chairman of INET, who was, you know, before the head of the British equivalent of the SEC and so on. He will -- he wrote a book which I think gives a -- the -- the solution, actually, because he says that we have more that -- the difference between now and 1930s, that we go into the crisis already over indebted.
And therefore, you can't just increase the debt. What you need to do, actually, is to print money.
LACQUA: You can't just print money.
George Soros: What?
LACQUA: You cannot just print money.
George Soros: Well, you can, but it's against -- against the rules, particularly in the European Union. So you have to find a way around it. And you can do it.
LACQUA: I have a question on China. There is a lot of pessimism in China, but will the crisis situation also be an opportunity to push through reforms?
George Soros: China is at a crossroads. Xi Jinping wants to impose party discipline and at the same time he's trying to find a market solution. And the two can't be reconciled. So one or the other has to give.
Either the -- there has to be political reforms, as well as economic reforms, or the transition will fail, the market-based transition.
We have a great interest that it should succeed. So we have to sort of support it as much as one can from the outside.
But it's really up for grabs. And it's one of the big unresolved questions. I hope that the -- actually, there is a lot of resistance inside China to this tight party control. There's a lot of open society people inside the government. And they are putting up a pretty strong resistance.
And I hope they will succeed.
LACQUA: If you have questions, do e-mail them in. We still have just one or two questions. On China, the vice president of China was here in Davos. And he says they are not actively pursuing a policy of devaluating the yuan.
Do you believe him?
George Soros: No, I think that they made a commitment to -- when Xi Jinping was in Washington. He made a commitment that he will bring the depreciation of the currency. But the depreciation against a basket of currencies, which nevertheless involves depreciation against the dollar, because the current -- the renminbi was tied to the dollar. Now, it's a basket.
And if the dollar appreciates, it -- then the renminbi depreciates. And that's still happening.
So...
LACQUA: I have -- I have two final questions.
What do you -- why do you think Poland is copying Hungary in its politics and political choices? And where will this lead to?
George Soros: Poland and that...
LACQUA: Poland...
George Soros: -- Poland...
LACQUA: Poland copying Hungary.
George Soros: Yes, well, Poland is copying Hungary and that's a very unfortunate development because Poland is a big country compared to Hungary. It's been a very successful coun -- country, also. The economy has been one of the strongest in Europe. And the new regime has taken the play book from Orban (ph) and introduced it.
And it really violates the laws of the European Union. And the European Union is -- has responded to it rather vigilantly and is now cracking down.
And (INAUDIBLE) has downgraded, so the zloty has fallen and I think the polish population has woken up that they've made a mistake.
They were voting against the previous government, but there was no loyal opposition. There was only a disloyal opposition.
So they brought the disloyal, anti-European party into power. But Poland -- the polish population is very much committed to Europe and very worried about Russia.
So there is now serious resistance and I hope it will succeed.
LACQUA: One final question.What is the biggest threat to the open society today?
George Soros: Well, the open society always -- is always under threat. Right now, you have this -- the ISIS -- the jihadi extremism, for instance. But open society has always some excesses that it has to combat.
In my generation, it was communism, actually. So every generation has to go through every experience that open society could collapse.
It's a -- how should I say, it's a very advanced process and reason doesn't naturally prevail. And let's say the fear of death now can really undermine the rule of reason. And that's what's happening.
LACQUA: George Soros, thank you so much.
George Soros: Good. Thank you.
索罗斯的经典名言：
1、市场总是错的。
2、重要的不是你的判断是错还是对，而是在你正确的时候要最大限度地发挥出你的力量来!
3、"我生来一贫如洗,但决不能死时仍旧贫困潦倒。”——挂在办公室的墙壁上。
4、如果你经营状况欠佳，那么，第一步你要减少投入，但不要收回资金。当你重新投入的时候，一开始投入数量要小。
5、不知道未来会发生什么并不可怕，可怕的是不知道如果发生什么就该如何应对。
6、要想获得成功，必须要有充足的自由时间。
7、在股票市场上，寻求别人还没有意识到的突变。
8、股市通常是不可信赖的，因而，如果在华尔街地区你跟曾别人赶时髦，那么，你的股票经营注定是十分惨淡的。
9、身在市场，你就得准备忍受痛苦。
10、如果你的投资运行良好，那么，跟着感觉走，并且把你所有的资产投入进去。
11、人们认为我不会出错，这完全是一种误解。我坦率地说，对任何事情，我和其他人犯同样多的错误。不过，我的超人之处在于我能认识自己的错误。这便是成功的秘密。我的洞察力关键是在于，认识到了人类思想内在的错误。
12、我不愿意花很多时间和股票市场的人们在一起，我觉得他们讨厌，和知识分子在一起比和商人在一起感觉要舒服得多。
13、很多年我都拒绝把它(投资)作为我的职业。它是达到目的的手段。我很乐意去接受——事实上，这就是我一辈子的事业。
14、我已经和公司打成一片。它以我为生，我也和它生活在一起，日夜形影不离……它是我的情人。我害怕失去它也担心做失败，并尽量避免失误。这是一种悲惨的生活。
15、我完全投入这一工作，但这确实是非常痛苦的经历。一方面，无论什么时候我在市场中如果作出了错误决策，我得忍受非常巨大的精神折磨。另一方面，我确实不愿意为了成功而把赚钱作为必需的手段。为了找出支配我进行金融决策的规则，我否认我已经成功。
